#NerdsUnite: Play on playa! (Breaking down the world of sports so you don't have to!)
<editorsnote> Nerds, meet my buddy Derek - I met him when I was professor for a day at CSF. Really rad dude, and he wants to come on board to help explain to us nerdy folk the wild world of sports. Smart dude, and knows his shizzy shiznat. I only have one more thing left to say ... HIT IT DEREK!!! </editorsnote>
#TalkNerdyToMeLover's @DerekJ_AllDay
G'day folks! So, today is the big day, part one of my fantasy football draft kit. Part two will obviously be next week. In this post I am going to detail my advice for rounds 1-5 and next week will be 6-16. It is important that you prepare for all 16 rounds, often times newer players will study a lot of the first five rounds and then become lost once round 11 is here. Most leagues only allow 90 seconds for you to choose so preparation and confidence in your picks that comes from preparation is more important than you think. Don't forget you can tweet me @DerekJ_AllDay to discuss this post or anything else sports related with me.
I am going to begin all of this with general fantasy advice. (#1) The most important thing is to have a blast playing this game, there are so many numbers, stats and injuries in fantasy football that sometimes you are going to lose no matter what you do. Don't forget that a lot of this is just luck of the draw! Who is going to get injured? Who is going to have a breakout year? Who is going to underperform and bury their team? *cough* Chris Johnson *cough* Shit is going to happen (injuries mostly), but if you stay calm and use your knowledge to make the best replacement pick off of the Free Agent market that you can, then you may find someone who can replace that lost production.
(#2) Use the mock draft lobbies that ESPN.com provides for you! This is easily the best tool that will help you improve your draft when the big day comes. The word "mock" means that it is a fake league, people will join and draft for the sole purpose of practice and then the league is deleted by ESPN.com once the mock draft is over. Every player and stat is given to you while you draft so it is also a perfect time to research. Google is also useful, you will find that searching "(Player Name Here) stats" will do wonders. You can join these mock drafts as many times as you want. It is important that you pay attention to all of the trends that occur while you are in these mock drafts because most of the time people try to pretend this is a real draft and see what their options will be during the real thing. You also need to be a little cautious, if you get stuck in a mock draft with a bunch of idiots taking the Broncos defense at first overall pick, just leave and find a better one. You can find these draft lobbies by going to this link, http://games.espn.g0o.com/ffl/mockdraftlobby. If you don't use this, you will wish you did later.
Really quick, I will break down some of the simple stuff. (1) Each standard ESPN.com league has ten teams, each team has one pick per round and is able to start one QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 FLEX spot which holds a WR or RB, 1 TE, 1 K and one Defense/Special Teams per week along with 7 bench spots. (2) There is a Free Agent market where you can choose any players that were not drafted to be on your team, but each team can only have 16 players meaning if you add you have to drop. (3) There are trades which you can find on any teams page, but the trade deadline for standard ESPN.com leagues is Wednesday, Nov. 21 at 12pm ET.
Here we go.
My initial analysis of this years draft class showed me that the amount of good running backs that you "know" you can count on has decreased greatly from last year. Let us start with Maurice Jones-Drew, many could argue that he is the best running back in the league who is just stuck on a bad team, but this year he is even more stuck in contract negotiations. Since he knows that the Jaguars have no chance in hell at winning a Super Bowl, especially without him, why would he return without getting the most money possible? He gets beat up year in and year out with a ton of carries, but he still finds a way to put up incredible numbers; meanwhile the Jaguars are in last place. Odds are you cannot count on MJD for game one of the seaosn. Next, a player I believed was going to be a top 5 RB at the end of the season, Ryan Matthews, broke his clavicle in the Chargers first preseason game. There is talk he might return from his 4-6 week healing period early, but that just scares me more. He is already considered injury prone, and an early return screams "re-injury!". QBs are deep and so are WRs, but TEs are always sparse.
Let us begin by taking a look at my first round draft projections. These are not the ESPN rankings, rather these are my rankings and I will be putting the ESPN draft position in parenthesis. For example, #1 (4) Aaron Rodgers QB. That means I rank him as the number one pick, but ESPN believes he is the fourth overall pick. #1 (4) Aaron Rodgers QB, #2 (1) Arian Foster RB, #3 (2) Ray Rice RB, #4 (3) LeSean McCoy RB, #5 (6) Tom Brady QB, #6 Calvin Johnson WR, #7 (8) Drew Brees QB, #8 (13) Rob Gronkowski TE, #9 (9) Chris Johnson RB, #10 (10) Larry Fitzgerald WR. Count them up and that is 4 RB, 3 QB, 2 WR and 1 TE. This is probably an accurate assessment of the value of each position. You will want to save your K and DE/ST for much later rounds. These rankings shouldn't surprise many, but some will probably disagree with Gronkowski at 8. Listen, he had a record setting year last year at a position that is known for it's fantasy ineptitude. He is a huge target in the red zone, and barring injury I do not see a reason Gronk won't return to form. Some argue that he will be double teamed, but they already double teamed him last year and it barely stopped him! Chris Johnson was out of shape and stuck in contract disputes last season. That caused him to have a career worst fantasy year, but after an offseason of workouts he could return to his number one pick form and be a huge late first round value pick. Overall, if you don't get Rodgers you may want to look RB no matter what.
This is the part that scares me, especially for people who don't draft a RB first round. These are my RB rankings for those left after the first round. Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew*, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles*, Darren McFadden*, Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson*, Ryan Matthews*. Those with asterisks* by their names are recovering from serious injuries last season or are in contract negotiations. My point is, after the first or maybe second round, depending on how your league drafts their may not be any quality starting RBs left. Also, serious injuries such as the ACL tear Adrian Peterson experienced can often times cause an athlete to lose his speed and fantasy value. It's a gamble, be wary.
Second Round. #11 (12) Matthew Stafford QB, #12 (17) Matt Forte RB, #13 (16) Marshawn Lynch RB, #14 (11) Andre Johnson WR, #15 (14) Roddy White WR, #16 (15) Greg Jennings WR, #17 (20) Wes Welker WR, #18 (18) Demarco Murray RB, #19 (19) Mike Wallace WR, #20 (5) Maurice Jones-Drew RB. I believe that Lynch has turned a corner after a great 2011 campaign, but there is some risk that his O-line won't support him and/or he returns to his lazier form. Matt Forte is a RB1 in my opinion, his injury at the end of last season was minor and he is sitting pretty with a nice contract. Johnson appears to be healthy after a groin injury in 2011, and if you research Murray he has some incredible potential.
Third Round. #21 (22) Jimmy Graham TE, #22 (28) Darren McFadden RB, #23 (21) Jamaal Charles RB, #24 (31) Steven Jackson RB, #25 (24) Adrian Peterson RB, #26 (23) Cam Newton QB, #27 (25) Hakeem Nicks WR, #28 (27) Eli Manning QB, #29 (29) Victor Cruz WR, #30 (26) AJ Green WR. I cannot understate how valuable I believe great TEs are. That is why I place Graham a bit higher than ESPN. Peterson is coming off an ACL tear later in the season last year so he will be limite early, but his potential around week 3 is huge!
Fourth Round. #31 (32) Michael Vick QB, #32 (34) Fred Jackson, #33 (38) Frank Gore, #34 (37) Michael Turner, #35 (30) Ryan Matthews RB, #36 (33) Julio Jones WR, #37 (35) Brandon Marshall WR, #38 (39) Jordy Nelson WR, #39 (40) Steve Smith WR, #40 (45) Tony Romo QB. Jackson is old for a RB at the age of 31, but he has a chance for a very quality year. Don't let Matthews' pre-season injury fool you, he is still a valuable pick. He was a guaranteed mid second round pick at worst before his injury, and now there is even talk that he will come back early and be ready week 1 likely with limited snaps. I am probably undervaluing him because of his injury and him being injury prone, but there is something to be said about a RB who can't stay on the field. I think Romo is a great QB for a fourth round pick. He may have a career year, but if he just has a career average year he is still a solid fantasy producer.
Fifth Round. #41 (49) Peyton Manning QB, #42 (36) Trent Richardson RB, #43 (47) Brandon Lloyd WR, #44 (43) Ahmad Bradshaw RB, #45 (42) Darren Sproles RB, #46 (46) Marques Colston WR, #47 (44) Willis McGahee RB, #48 (51) Reggie Bush RB, #49 (53) Vincent Jackson WR, #50 (52) BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB. Peyton is going to be Peyton, he has had a tough preseason but those games do not count. Richardson is a scary pick to me, he is a rookie who is coming off of surgery. I think Brandon Lloyd is a great pick, a sharpshooter in Tom Brady throwing to him will add to his TD count and all he needs is one offensive injury to be a key part of that offense.
Tweet me @DerekJ_AllDay to discuss anything sports! Thanks for reading and remember part two is next week!