#NerdsUnite: Play on playa! (Breaking down the world of sports so you don't have to!)
<editorsnote> Nerds, meet my buddy Derek - I met him when I was professor for a day at CSF. Really rad dude, and he wants to come on board to help explain to us nerdy folk the wild world of sports. Smart dude, and knows his shizzy shiznat. I only have one more thing left to say ... HIT IT DEREK!!! </editorsnote>
#TalkNerdyToMeLover's @DerekJ_AllDay
Watsup #TNTML nation! Thanks for reading again this week; and what a beautiful week it is! I know all my fellow baseball fans would agree that for this week only the sun shines a bit brighter, the dirty So Cal air is just a tad sweeter, and all men are also clearing their throats so they can yell at their televisions. What? I yell at them if I’m at the game too! (The language is just cleaner) Anyways, this week my post is going to be me summing up the beginning of the season, and also a little fantasy advice for all of you now that my friends and I have drafted and they can’t steal my secrets.
After what felt like the longest offseason of my lifetime, baseball is finally set to return this Wednesday with a great matchup between the defending World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals, and the incredibly talented and newly named Miami Marlins. (If you would like a recap of what happened over the offseason, you can search DerekJ_AllDay on the site and find my post about the big trades and free agent signings.) Then the real action starts on Thursday when 14 other teams begin their season. On Friday the rest of the clubs, including my favorite team the Angels, play their first game…and from that point on the longest and most challenging regular season in major leagues sports has begun.
*As a side note* There were two regular season games played earlier this week in Japan as a marketing tactic for MLB. It makes the regular season a bit awkward, but it’s for the good of the game. The only con is for people like myself who are stupid enough to stay up and watch it at 3 am, and also for A’s and Mariner’s fans for the same reason. Totally worth it.
Head over to ESPN.com to get a full opening day and regular season schedule, and make sure to check out all the amazing games and division races throughout the season. I would go into more detail, but as I previously stated I already wrote a detailed post about the upcoming season.
Now is the time that all sports nerds and math jocks start to get excited, because we’re talking fantasy! Not basic fantasy, but all my advice in a quick wrap up on who I’m high and low on, and who you should pick to lead you to a fantasy championship.
I have been playing fantasy baseball on ESPN.com for years (I really don’t know how long, at least 7-8 years). Considering I am 22 years old, I have been playing for a while. I won’t sit here and declare that I am a fantasy genius, but what I believe is on my side is experience and a skilled intuition on players potential and ability. I also do a lot of research and have been following and watching most of the players in baseball for much of my life, so that helps. *claps for Derek* Thank you Thank you, now to the fun stuff.
If you look at the basic fantasy rankings that ESPN.com gives you here, it will be much easier for you to follow what I am saying because I will refer to them often. I give my advice assuming the league is ESPN standard 10 team league, if you customize your league and go crazy then best of luck. Also, I am giving this advice on a basis of “value,” I am not going to tell you Roy Halladay is a bad pick, but I won’t tell you to pick him because I think you can get a better value than him at that point in the draft. If you don’t understand, it’s cool, hang in there. So, let’s look at the first round.
Is there even a bad pick? The quick answer is no…but there are better picks. I’ll refrain from stating all the “buys”, and tell you the people that I “sell” in the first round at all costs. The first name is, Ryan Braun. The NL MVP is being drafted at 5th overall and although he came off a monumental fantasy year he was also accused of using steroids, and there is a HUGE shadow of doubt cast over his head. There are two cons here, if he used steroids then he has to quit and his production should drop. If he is innocent, he is going to be harassed by the media until his production drops. Either way, run away! The second and last guy for the first round is Jacoby Ellsbury. His primary fantasy statistic is steals, and if you are picking your first rounder than you are looking for the raw power and huge production that will lead your team. His career averages just don’t fit that description. In my opinion, unless he drops to the second round you should be scared (Carl Crawford anyone?).
When I look at the second round and see Halladay being taken 11th overall, it really confuses me. I will NEVER take Halladay, or (most) any pitcher that high ever. Here is the reasoning, pitchers only play once every 5 games. A position player benefits your team daily, so unless you are getting an insanely good (fantasy) pitcher, you should always draft a position player second round. As you may assume I would “sell” Halladay, but in what may be a slight contradiction I would take the other pitcher on the board, Justin Verlander. This is for obvious reasons! Verlander had more strikeouts and wins, his ERA and WHIP were incredibly low and even if he doesn’t beat out Halladay in everything, his young age and massive strikeout numbers warrant him being picked that high. If you have back to back picks as the 10 pick, and go with Adrian Gonzales and Justin Verlander, I don’t think anyone would fault you. There is only one more player that I would avoid this round, and that is Hanley Ramirez. He is coming off his worst year ever after performing as a top tier fantasy shortstop in every other year of his career. To add onto that he is also switching positions, this is a red flag for me, others may be willing to take the risk…but in round 3?!
I have been writing this a long time now, and for the sake of mercy I am going to stop here, but I am going to give you a list of all my sells (those are most important) for rounds 1-10 right now! If you have any comments, questions for other rounds, or even want to play fantasy with me…tweet me @DerekJ_AllDay, I am already in a league with one of my other followers! See ya next week!
SELL: Round 3: Jose Reyes (Injuries and more Injuries, last year I pulled a hammy watching him run), Lincecum (no run support, coming off bad year, better alternatives)
SELL: Round 4: David Wright (other than position scarcity, you can easily find someone with more production), Josh Hamilton (25% chance he is a top 3 outfielder, 75% chance he gets hurt, you want to risk it?)
SELL: Round 5: Brett Lawrie (I get position scarcity, but the kid has hardly seen the majors and if you want guaranteed production, look elsewhere)
SELL: Round 6: Brandon Phillips (he has spark, but if Zobrist is there you should take him),
SELL: Round 7: Stephen Strasburg (He has a strict innings limit this season, while other picks will be pitching for your competition in the fantasy playoffs he will be sitting and resting for next season.)
Sell: Round 8: BJ Upton (amazing talent with shitty attitude, and he starts the season on the disabled list)
Sell: Round 9: Adam Jones (he will be a gold glover, but defense doesn’t count. If you can get Choo instead, do it.)
Sell: Round 10: Alexei Ramirez (If you really want him, or need a SS desperately than go for it, I’m just low on him), Jeremy Hellickson (IMO, Trumbo should’ve been rookie of the year, but regardless the major league hitters will be seeing him for the second and third time this year and will start to hit him), Joe Mauer (It may be a personal problem, but this guy will never be healthy again)
If you want more, just tweet me @DerekJ_AllDay for conversation or advice!